Special Reports

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Israel’s complicated relationship with Russia

Since Russia’s intervention in Syria, Israel’s relations with Russia have boomed – at least in terms of sheer number of visits and calls. Israel’s relationship with Russia is, however, complex with each sides seeking to secure their own, sometimes diverging goals. This report analyzes what these goals are, what kind of issues are discussed during bilateral talks, the nature of the relationship and its future.

 

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MbS’ Path to and Vision for His Saudi Arabia

Mohammed bin Salman (often referred to as MbS) has already left his mark on Saudi Arabia, bringing his vision of both social, economic and geopolitical issues. This report examines both how MbS secured a path to being heir apparent, whilst also discussing what “his” Saudi Arabia could look like when he does ascend to the throne.

 

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The insurgency in Sinai: A deadly stalemate

Years after the outbreak of the insurgency in Sinai, and six years after the main jihadist group in Sinai swore allegiance to the Islamic State, Le Beck takes a look at the current situation, discussing the Islamic State’s strategy and military capabilities as well as the results of Egypt’s counter-insurgency campaign.

 

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Russia’s vision for Syria

As the Syrian civil war comes closer to its end game, Le Beck discusses how Moscow views the conflict, what Russia’s medium and short term goals are both on the political military and economic levels, what (and sometimes “who”) are the main obstacles to reaching these goals. From this, Le Beck draws three main scenarios ranking them from more to less likely.

 

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Turkey’s expansion in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey has become increasingly assertive in the Eastern Mediterranean in a bid to defend its interests and break its perceived isolation. This report discusses the root causes of the growing tensions in the region, the various regional alliances, while gauging what Ankara’s goal may be and what the impact the widening regional competition will have on Europe and NATO.

 

 

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Is Russia trying to replace Assad?

This report discusses the growing criticism against President Bashar al-Assad emanating from Russian outlets, both assessing how these may relate (or not) to concerns in the Kremlin, and what this may say about Moscow’s view of Syria’s future.

 

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Scenario-building: After Abbas

The Palestinian Authority is at a critical junction with multiple actors both within and without trying to influence the succession of its current head, President, Mahmoud Abbas. This scenario-building report discusses the possible outcome of Abbas’s succession, as well as the potential for violence to erupt during this process.

 

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UNIFIL Threat Assessment

This reports gauges the threats to forces participating in the UNIFIL mission in southern Lebanon and ranks them according to their associated probability and impact.

 

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Hezbollah: Strategy, Goals and Structure

This report is an in-depth analysis of Hezbollah’s strategy, goals and structure both as a military and political entity.

 

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The Iran-Russia relationship: Strategic alliance or transactional partnership?

This report discusses the Russia-Iranian relationship today, including how Russia views Iran nuclear program and their shared and opposing interests in the Middle East, including in Syria and Iraq.

 

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The Russian Military in Syria

This report discusses the Russian military footprint in Syria, the structure and strategies employed by the Russian contingent and lessons-learned.

 

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Scenario-building: Iran and the JCPOA

This report discusses the various outcomes of the current crisis triggered by the US exit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

 

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Please note that these reports may need to be updated to reflect recent changes and developments. Allow for up to a week from the final order to receive the report.

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