The Blog / Commentary

“Both sides are trying to establish their own rules of the game, especially Iran, who wants to show that since the Assad victory in Aleppo, Israel cannot hope to operate as freely as before in Syria,” Michael Horowitz, a Middle East specialist at Bahrain-based consultancy LeBeck International, explains to L’Orient Le Jour, recalling that last September, an Iranian drone was also shot down in Israel two weeks after an Israeli strike near the Syrian coast.

“It is, therefore, quite possible that the sending of the Iranian drone represents both a response from Tehran to the strike against the Jamraya research center, but also to the Israeli efforts to mobilize Russia to contain the ambitions of its partner in Syria.”ill probably continue and pro-regime forces will probably be able to continue to advance on Saraqeb,” he said.

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Michael Horowitz, a senior analyst at the Le Beck geopolitical consultancy, said the shoot down was not “a game changer” as the Su-25 flies low in support of ground troops and is therefore vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire.

“On the tactical level it could change things because the Russian are probably not going to use the Su-25 as much. But on the strategic level I don’t think it’s going to change anything it terms of military balance even in this specific area.

“The offensive will probably continue and pro-regime forces will probably be able to continue to advance on Saraqeb,” he said.

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How well Kurds perform in Afrin could determine Turks’ future plans, raising the stakes of the current battle. “In the long term, the YPG can’t win,” said Michael A. Horowitz, an analyst at Le Beck, a security and risk management consultancy. “But they can make sure the operation will be costly enough that the Turkish threat to extend their operations to Manbij and eastern Syria will lose some of its edge.”

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“The big question related to Saleh’s death is who will take his place. A clear successor, with many pointing to his son Ahmed as a potential candidate, could allow for the continuity of Saleh’s position, including vis-a-vis any attempts at resolving the conflict,” said Miriam Eps, regional security analyst at Manama-based risk management consultancy Le Beck International.

In the short term, his death is likely to increase violence in Sana’a as Saleh forces will be looking to retaliate and the Houthis might attempt to retake areas of the capital lost in recent days, she said. Ultimately, the dissolution of the Houthis’ alliance with Saleh undermines their military might and their negotiating position, she said.

“Saleh’s death, therefore, is a major blow because it removes a key influencer, but the real question is how the Houthis intend to move forward,” she said. “Continued conflict is certainly an option, and they could turn to Iran for increased support, but they may also realize that the dissolution of their alliance means they have to negotiate.”

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“It is not clear, however, that this will have a significant impact, with the current blockade and entry limits apparently not achieving this aim,” said Miriam Eps Regional Security Analyst at Le Beck International.

Although humanitarian activities are expected to continue, Ms Eps thinks that the closures are liable to slow down the entry of aid, “impacting the already existing crisis and affecting the average Yemeni more than Houthi fighters.”

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